Neither war nor peace

Nezavisimaia Gazeta has published the results of an interesting Ukrainian opinion poll, which sheds light on why the conflict in Donbass remains unresolved.

According to the survey, 18.6% of Ukrainians support the idea of continuing the war in Donbass until final victory, down from 30% at the start of the year. However, only 23% are willing to countenance changing the Ukrainian constitution to give special status for Donbass, as required under the Minsk agreements. The most favoured policy option (30% of respondents) is to declare Donbass ‘occupied’ and isolate it. Only 12% of those polled supported the Minsk agreements in general. More specifically, although those agreements state that elections should take place in Donbass before the rebels hand control of the border back to the Ukrainian government, merely 24% of people supported this idea, whereas 51% opposed it. The agreements similarly oblige Kiev to grant an amnesty to the rebels. This has the support of 34% of people, but is rejected by 38%.

To borrow a phrase from Leon Trotsky, the situation in Ukraine is ‘neither war nor peace’. The poll suggests that this is no accident. Ukrainians have no great appetite for war, but they are unwilling to take the steps required to bring peace. If they have ended up with something in between, it is because that is what they appear to prefer. As Nezavisimaia Gazeta concludes, Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko ‘cannot not take these circumstances into consideration’. At this stage, therefore, a major change in Ukrainian policy is unlikely.

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6 thoughts on “Neither war nor peace”

  1. I think it’s rather meaningless to talk of ‘Ukrainians’. The state of Ukraine ended Feb 22, 2014. Now there’s a territory controlled by the regime in Kiev, and it has (roughly) two very different regions: west&center and east&south. The regime is dominated by the west&center. The ‘average’ opinion of ‘Ukrainians’ just doesn’t tell any meaningful story…

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  2. The resolution of the armed conflict in Donbass is primarily in the hands of those who started it – that is, FSB colonel Girkin and his 50 men who captured Slavyansk on 13 April 2014 and continue to fuel it by supplying men and arms through the Russian-Ukrainian border. It would be thus interesting to read what the people in Russia think about their state being actively involved in the war in Donbass. Oh wait, I don’t think they hear a lot about it in their TV – and they are too busy switching their doublethink between all these ludicrous versions of MH17 crash posted by Russian MoD on regular basis.

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    1. “The resolution of the armed conflict in Donbass is primarily in the hands of those who started it – that is, FSB colonel Girkin and his 50 men who captured Slavyansk on 13 April 2014 and continue to fuel it by supplying men and arms through the Russian-Ukrainian border. “

      1) Civil War in the Ukraine began the very moment radicals toppled the legitimate government in the course of the so-called “EuroMaidan”.

      2) DonBas began resisting illegitimat couped-in regime in Kiev long before Girkin-Strelkov.

      3) Girkin-Strlkov is not FSB colonel

      4) Hot phase of the Civil War in the Ukraine began when fuck-wit Turchinov ordered the start of the ATO.

      BTW, my dear svidomite friend – have you already put down the fire exploding from your arse, caused by a few remarks of Israel’s president in the den of inequitey know as the Verkhovna Rada?

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      1. Your memory does not serve you well. Until Girkin’s entry into Slavyansk there were no armed conflict, no fatal victims and even in Donetsk there were both pro-Ukraine and pro-Russia demonstrations (even though we know from Glazyev that they were initiated by Kremlin). Girkin changed everything, taking prisoners, killing Rybak and others. This is precisely when the ATO was initiated.

        P.S. I’m just wondering if professor Paul Robinson is keeping you here with your filthy language as a live exhibit of Russkiy mir possibly?

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  3. “Until Girkin’s entry into Slavyansk there were no armed conflict, no fatal victims “

    Yeah, of course – when #онижедети are killing Berkut personell that doesn’t count. Oh, and btw – how is your investigation of Maidan snipers is going? Found out who were they? And while we are at it – the practice of illegally occupying governmental buildings, be it ministeraial or local provincial admisitrations had been started by maidowns long before the victory of the so-called Revolution of Dignitiy.

    The fact remains – it was a fuck-wit Turchinov, Bloody Pastor, who sent troops and tanks against his own people.

    ” It would be thus interesting to read what the people in Russia think about their state being actively involved in the war in Donbass.”

    If, as you claim, Russia is waging war againt your beloved Ukrajina – why won’t you declare war on us? Why are you still trading with us, allow our citizens to cross the border, allow your heroic president and oligarchs to own preoperty and business in “agressor country” and pay taxes here (which streghtens our Pskovo-Buryatian armoured submersile horse marines). Why you, who have the backing of the whole Fucking Free World won’t declare the War on us, “regional power with the economy shredd to tatters” and retake Donbas and Crimea? What is worth your whining about “Russian agression” if you only whine, and whine and beg?

    “P.S. I’m just wondering if professor Paul Robinson is keeping you here with your filthy language as a live exhibit of Russkiy mir possibly?”

    There are several reasons for that. First of all – this blog is not like some usual Ukrian propaganda echochamber, be it Censor.Net or any other such rag. Next – commenter here are not slaves or pets – they are not “kept” here. We come here on our own. As for what is “Russkiy Mir” – honesty, only Russophobic Ukrs are so obsessed with it, which tells a lot about them and thier psyche. Professor Robinson can read Russian so he can find enough exhibits of both Russian World and top-level Russian profanities (which could be really awesomelly constructed) if he choses to.

    But you can always complain to Poul about my behaviour – go ahead, geode! Do it!

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  4. On April 7 2014 Mr Turchinov announces the ‘anti-terrorist operation’ in Donbas — a few days before Mr Girkin crosses the border.

    This is a simple fact.

    How does it fit into your narrative, I wonder… Is Mr Turchinov, by chance, a clairvoyant?

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