Follow up on Donbass

Russia Direct has today published a piece in which various analysts comment about the recent fighting in Donbass. I have contributed 300 words to the debate. You can read it all here.

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9 thoughts on “Follow up on Donbass”

  1. I read Colonel Cassad (in Russian) today, and he’s basically saying that the ‘Minsk agreements’ is a farce, because the US is not part of it, while France and Germany don’t really need to be in it.

    Without the US and Russia sorting it out directly, the only permanent solution would be an outright military victory of one side or the other. And I think just about now it would be an opportune moment for a decisive attack. From east, that is…

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  2. Seeing as various learned people are forwarding their theories as the reasons behind this newest bloodbath in the East of the Ukraine, may I add my own 2 kopecks to the debate? In the net, the Ukrainian segment, there’ve been making rounds this version – it’s all about Renat Akhmetov.

    It’s an open secret that Kiev is trading with the People Republics – it can’t get coal elsewhere so cheap. Akhmetov has property and businesses on both sides of the frontline and remains still unbowed and unbroken by the riling camarilla. He is far from defenseless and still can pull his political weight, as demonstrated local elections in the East. In 2014 while Mariupol was still under control of the Novorosiyan forces, Akhmetov organized his own “self-defense forces” who were keeping order (not sure about keeping law though…) in the city. When Mariupol was taken by the Ukrainian military Akhmetov’s druzhinniks didn’t disappear. They are still there, these loyal huskarles of yet another Ukrainian oligarch.

    What did this “leapfrog offensive” really accomplished?
    – Now powerstations owned by Akhmetov can’t get the goal from Akhmetov’s mines.
    – Akhmetov owned factories producing chark can’t supply it to Akhmetov’s owned metallurgical factories and foundries elsewhere in the East.

    One of the “city-forming” industries in Avdeevka is Akhmetov’s owned chark producing chemical plant. In the past, Renat Akhmetov demonstrated his unwillingness to sell it to the loyalists of the current government in Kiev, to the “serious businessmen” Kononekno and Kropachev.

    So – that’s it! That’s why both the soldiers are dying and freezing to death in the East of the Ukraine. For something out from the “Rough 90s” gangster redistribution of the property taken up to 11. AKA – unbridled capitalism.

    Honestly, if true, then it puts to shame the sort of multi-level military profettering con, described in the “Catch-22”.

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    1. That’s far too involved a conspiracy theory for me. Mind you, in general, I am a supporter of the ‘cock-up’ theory of history rather than the conspiracy theory of history.

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      1. IMO, the Western commentariat on the events in Ukraine is either dangerously ignorant or actively ideologically dismissive of the oligachs and the extent of their power in the Ukraine. It could be partially explained, that the Westerners just can’t imagine the “respected businessmen” ™ to be engaged in such sort of behavior. Bill Gtes to finance an armed coup and Neo-Nazi battallions? Pffffft! What a crazy thought!

        The Ukrainian oligarchs and their ambitons, plus the sheer level of their power should not be dismissed outright just because “that’s not how civilized people conduct their affairs” (c)

        Days before the escalation there was “absolutely spontaneous” action of protest against the hike in utility bills come 1 Feb with lots of pre-printed flyers which blamed the hike in prices for the heat on… Renat Akhmetov:

        Akhmetov btw is living in London.

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      2. IMO, the Western commentariat on the events in Ukraine is either dangerously ignorant or actively ideologically dismissive of the oligarchs and the extent of their power in the Ukraine.

        Akhmetov himself seems a bit different, though. A gangster, obviously, but somehow it seems that he prefers to stay away from the snake pit, and he seems less unpleasant than others. Or maybe I’m just brainwashed by his minions… I used to know his wife’s personal assistant.

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      3. Thanks for the article, Mao Cheng Ji! Lots and lots of really meaty stuff here. Frankly, I forgot about Taruta – turns out he bankrupted himself while put in charge of Donetsk oblast. And the article confirms that Akhmetov did got for himself a “preferential treatment” by having the “Rotterdam+” system applied to his supply of the fuel to the power sations… which makes accusations against him accurate.(Akhmetov owns “KievEnergo”).

        The article also te-iterates my points about the cessation of work on Avdeevka’s chemical plant (owned, naturally, by Akhmetov) which supplies Akhmetov’s factories in Mariupol (where his people won in last elections)

        As for multinats replacing Ukrainian oligarchs – that’s been the plan since the day one, ergo the “varangians” in Yatsenyuk’s government. But it seems that Poroshenko is gripped by indicisivness. He doesn’t want to really fight fellow oligarchs only to be rewarded with cushy exile abroad – but he can’t reform his country and insure its normal functioning either.

        The conclusion of the article – that the Ukrainian oligarch demonstrated incredible shortsightness by supporting the EuroMaidan – is trivial, but must be said aloud. To quote one Leningrad’s native: “Do you understand what you have done?”

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      4. But it seems that Poroshenko is gripped by indicisivness.

        I’m not sure this is a convincing explanation. I believe what we’re observing nowadays, in these post-colonial times, is that countries successfully defeat direct imperialist takeover attempts by simply becoming ungovernable. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Ukraine. In the past, Europeans would counteract it by nakedly eliminationist tactics, but these days it might be a bit costly.

        Well, except in Palestine. But there you have millions of European settlers. Although, in Ukraine they’re now trying something similar, pretending that Galicians are the only legitimate citizens there…

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  3. Given that Poroshenko is currently actively going after various Oligarchs (Kolomoisky has been savaged, Pinchuk is being investigated by SBU), having him go after Akhmetov seems to be a valid explanation.

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