This week’s book was published in England in 1902. The author, Henry Norman, was at that time the Liberal MP for Wolverhampton South. A former journalist, he became Assistant Postmaster General in January 1910 before losing his seat in a general election a few days later. In December 1910, he returned to Parliament as MP for Blackburn, but never held ministerial office again. I wonder if there is anyone in British history who has been a minister for a shorter length of time.
Given that we are just a few days away from the hundredth anniversary of the February Revolution, which overthrew Tsar Nicholas II, Norman’s conclusion is interesting, if only as an example of the perils of making predictions about Russia. I suspect, though, that many modern Russians may agree with the final paragraph. Norman wrote:
I am no believer in any revolutionary upheaval, though, of course, the possibility of social disorder cannot be overlooked. … She [Russia] may, of course, fall upon war with an equal Power, and this would be to her the greatest of all calamities at the present stage of her development. But I am certain that it is her ruler’s fixed resolve to ‘seek peace and pursue it’. Certain minor and distinct difficulties undoubtedly await her. … My own conviction, however, is that these and other difficulties and dangers are small in comparison with Russian strength and resources. No one who can remember the past can doubt of her future. … The character and aims of the Tsar himself warrant the happiest auguries.
Russia is going ahead – that is my conclusion. It is foolish and unscientific to judge her solely by the foot-rule of our older and different civilisation. She should be measured by a standard deduced from her own past, her own period, and her own racial character. Then it will be clear that she stands, so far as virtue and vice go in a national development, very much where the rest of nations do. … It must be clear that the twentieth century must count Russia as one of the greatest factors in the movement and development of human society.
PS. There will be no Friday book next week, as I shall be travelling.